And time for predictions and awards.
I'll start with awards. Predictions to come later, if I have time. (In case I don't, here's a summary: Spurs over Pistons. There.)
6th Man of the Year: Leandro Barbosa
Apologies to Manu, but he started for almost half of the year and I can't in good conscience give this award to anyone who hasn't come off the bench for a significant majority of the season. Especially when there's an equally deserving player who has.
Barbosa, I think, is a product of the Suns system. I have a hard time seeing his reckless abandon succeeding on many other teams. But he's been a key component of the Suns' offensive attack and has basically carried their bench while Mike D'Antoni continues his refusal to go deeper than seven or eight players in any given game.
Most Improved: Monta Ellis
Came out of nowhere to embrace Nellieball and become a consistent contributor in helping a team that had two very different lineups this season scratch their way into the Playoffs. Another great second round find by the Warriors, if he can improve his jump shot he could be a potential All Star.
Defensive Player of the Year: Bruce Bowen
This may be a homer pick, but dammit he's been screwed out of this award two or three times. Many Spurs fans will tell you he's lost a step this season, but he's still the league's best perimeter defender. The Spurs are the best defensive team in the league, and I think you could make a case for Bowen and Duncan. But my pick is Bowen because, while Duncan spends much of his time defending the secondary post player, Bowen typically guards the other team's key perimeter threat.
Unfortunately, this has historically been the most lazily-voted award, and it takes a substantial amount of hype for a perimeter player to win (see Ron Artest). My guess is that the voters check the Blocks stat and give the award to Jermaine O'neal or Marcus Camby.
Rookie of the Year: Brandon Roy
Who gets to see rookies much anyway? They all play for crappy teams who are never on national broadcasts. Roy looked very mature in a game I watched earlier this season and his numbers back up his candidacy, so he's my pick. But frankly, I couldn't care less about this year's rookie class.
Now, I've lumped the next two awards together because each one of my choices for these awards influenced my other choice. I'll explain.
Coach of the Year: Avery Johnson
I had two paragraphs written about what Jeff Van Gundy has done in Houston this year, and I maintain that he has done a fantastic job leading a team missing half of its core to Home Court in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs.
But Avery Johnson is the heart and soul of the team that has been the best in the league since the second week of the season. He's instilled a Champion, professional, and defense-focused attitude into a team that was considered one of the NBA's softest only a few short years ago.
While Dirk Nowitzki is clearly their most important player, the Mavericks have been successful due to team chemistry and unselfishness, and I would guess no one would have ever though you could see Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse fitting into that kind of system 5 years ago.
It's hard for coaches to win this award twice in a row. Voters like surprise stories of Lottery Teams making the Playoffs, or (as will likely be the case this year) lifetime achievement awards for coaches who have never won it. With Avery at the helm, it's hard to see this team being any worse than the 3rd or 4th best team in the West even if any one of their players was lost for the season. And given that.....
MVP: Tracy McGrady
Again, I had Dirk's justification almost finished, but as I was writing about why Dirk should win the MVP, I began to realize that what I was really writing was an argument for Avery Johnson being the Coach of the Year. Meanwhile, I looked back at my write-up for Van Gundy and became aware of what an accomplishment it was for Tracy McGrady to lead the Rockets to home court in the first round in the West. As great a coach as Van Gundy is, none of that would be possible without TMac doing the grunt work with Yao out for half of the season... not only as the primary scoring weapon, but as a playmaker and teammate.
While much hype at the beginning of the year was devoted to Kobe playing team ball, Tracy McGrady has been able to bring the best out of players like Rafer Alston and Chuck Hayes. Think about it, for half of this season the Rockets roster was TMac, Alston, Hayes, Shane Battier and Dikembe Mutumbo. And they're still essentially the fourth seed in the West.
So while I would be perfectly fine with Dirk winning this, and I give him extra points for deserving the award last season, I think what McGrady has done this year has been remarkable and criminally underappreciated.
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